I last wrote about the Bike 4.0 dynamic on February of 2025. At the time the industry was still reeling from the effects of the Covid bike bubble. To some extent, it still is, as suppliers are still —still! — struggling with excess inventory, particularly on the equipment side of the business. Nevertheless, the market is finally settling down and some consistent trends are emerging.
At different times and in different places, I’ve noted four of these, and I’d like to review them here.
Market integration
As I pointed out in 2025, the No. 1 driver of the Bike 4.0 dynamic is one of market integration. The consumer now has what I call a channel-agnostic choice of where to buy many bikes and supplies, ranging from traditional brick and mortar shops to direct from brands (via either D2C sales or Click & Collect) to third-party resellers like Amazon and Backcountry.
One effect of this is what’s called disintermediation, the removal of obstacles between buyers and sellers. A corollary of disintermediation is that it tends to drive prices to rock bottom. As a result, retailer margins from major suppliers are currently at an all-time low, and that’s not likely to change for the better anytime soon.
Savvy dealers have already pivoted to service and used bikes categories as long-neglected profit centers
That’s tough news, but here’s why: Any increase in dealer margins can only come from one of two places: either suppliers raise suggested retail prices and give (some of) the increase to dealers, or suppliers take (some of) their own profit margin and apply it to dealer margins. Neither is likely to happen.
On the one hand, suppliers are already under pressure from D2C brands, not to mention lower-priced Chinese labels like X-LAB, and are loath to raise retail prices more than they already have. And even if they did, it’s unlikely consumers would be willing to pay the increase. They’d simply take their business to the D2C or discount brands. On the other hand, suppliers’ margins are just as thin as dealers’, and there’s simply no wiggle room to enhance retailers’ piece of the pie.
This is bad news for retailers, to be sure, and suppliers too, but it’s also the case in automobiles, power sports, outdoor equipment and other industries as well. Same channel-agnostic markets, same effect.
Savvy dealers have already pivoted to service and used bikes categories as long-neglected profit centers, and it’s a sure bet even more will do so as running a successful bike shop on new bike sales becomes an increasingly untenable proposition. Savvy suppliers have already moved to reduce warehoused inventory, keep prices in line with market reality, and adjust workforces to match the new dynamic. So the specialty retail channel has already adjusted.
Another effect of market integration is that three of the four Quadrumvirate bike brands — Trek, Specialized, and Pon/Cannondale — have set up brand-owned retail stores in major (and sometimes, not-so-major) market areas. (Note: Giant has no company-owned stores in the USA.)
As of June, Trek owned about 280 of these retail locations; Specialized owned 59, and Pon owned 21, for a total of 360. Currently, many of those shops have closed, with Trek currently at 263, Specialized at 49, and Pon at 20, according to Michael Forte, owner of The Bike Shop List. That’s a not-quite 27% reduction in locations over just three months. Are more closures waiting in the wings? Nobody but the brands themselves — and maybe not even them — know for certain.
E-Bikes, new retailers, and lower inventories
E-bike brands like Aventon and Velotric have established themselves as major contenders in the dealer channel
The other main big driver of the Bike 4.0 dynamic has been the rise of e-bikes. From a niche-but-growing category in 2019, e-bikes now enjoy a major place in the industry, both inside and outside the traditional supply chain.
Across all channels, e-bikes are “around 35% of imported unit volume,” according to Peter Woolery of research.bike.
On the one hand, the surge of very cheap, no-name D2C ebikes has been stemmed somewhat by the repeal of the de minimis rule, although there are still plenty of cheap (just not as cheap) D2C e-bikes being sold. But on the other hand, e-bike brands like Aventon and Velotric have established themselves as major contenders in the dealer channel. At the same time, after years of resistance, traditional bike brands are finally beginning to embrace Class 2 e-bikes. Taken altogether, the future of e-bikes in specialty retail looks bright and will continue to grow.
Two other drivers complete the Bike 4.0 dynamic. The first of these is the rise of mobile service-centric bike shops and e-bike-only dealers, the latter often in nontraditional locations. Neither of these new classes of dealers show up on The Bike Shop List unless they carry a brand of bikes TBSL tracks, so it’s difficult to estimate how many of these businesses exist. But anecdotally, it seems their numbers are growing.
The final driver is that retailers are stocking notably less inventory, particularly in bikes and especially in bikes from Quadrumvirate brands. These dealers might be allocating more floor space to service or supplementing their main suppliers with so-called “B” brands, which may offer lower price points or are simply easier to do business with. But in any case, lower inventory levels — and the more frequent turns that result — are definitely here to stay.
For all the foregoing, there are definite winners in the Bike 4.0 game. Shops that are adapting to new market conditions and keeping a close eye on their numbers are emerging not just unscathed, but are actually prospering in 2026. Suppliers are getting back on their feet and recovering. But Bike 4.0 is still a long way from being “bike business as usual.” And it’s likely to stay that way for the foreseeable future.
