In the bicycle industry, we often talk about "the cadence." It’s the rhythm of the ride —t he predictable flow that allows a cyclist to maintain speed and manage energy. Business, much like a long climb up a steep grade, requires that same predictability. But lately, the American business community hasn't been riding a steady rhythm; we’ve been caught in a relentless cycle of "tariff whiplash" that threatens to knock even the strongest players off their game — or their bikes.
As the legal and political tides shift toward potential refunds, there is only one just path forward: The billions of dollars collected must be returned to the American companies and the people who actually paid them.
The Inventory Trap
There are inaccurate claims that tariffs are a "foreign tax." They aren't. They are a tax paid by American importers. When these tariffs were first slammed into place, most businesses and for certain bicycle businesses were already sitting on significant inventory — both in warehouses and on retail floors — products ordered months in advance.
Many retailers and manufacturers initially held their prices steady, selling through existing stock without adding the costs of the new duties. This is the primary reason we didn't see an immediate, overnight spike in every price tag. Businesses managed the initial costs as they planned for increased tariffs on products on orders.
Now, those same importers have paid the duties. Their current "landed cost" for every bike, component, and accessory now includes that additional tariff. Without immediate and direct refunds, these businesses are forced to maintain higher prices just to stay solvent.
The Math of the Turn: Bikes vs. Bananas
To understand the impact, we must contrast different business models. Look at the humble banana — the "canary in the coal mine" for tariff-induced inflation.
During a recent House Appropriations hearing, Rep. Madeleine Dean* (PA-04) challenged Secretary Howard Lutnick on this exact issue (Watch the testimony here). Dean noted that when a 10% tariff was discussed, Walmart had already increased the cost of bananas by 8%.
Because bananas are highly perishable and have an incredibly fast inventory turnover, the costs of tariffs are passed on — or phased out — almost instantly. It is a high-speed reaction. Our industry, however, moves at a different pace.
In specialty bicycle retail, even the best-managed importers or brands in the best of times turn their inventory approximately four times per year. For the independent bicycle dealer, that number is even lower; when the seasonal sales cycle are taken into account — a typical retailer may only turn their inventory three times per year.
When a tariff is "limited" to 150 days, it covers nearly the entire lifecycle of a shop's seasonal stock. Unlike the "banana model," we cannot pivot overnight. While these 150-day broad-brush taxes leave us in a vacuum of uncertainty, it is important to note that the mechanism for fixing this is already in place. Every tariff paid is documented on a customs entry form that identifies exactly what was paid, the amount, and by whom. Refunding the money to the entity that actually cut the check is not a logistical nightmare — it's a matter of administrative will.
Planning for the Road Ahead
I will continue to advocate for the Bicycle and Assembly Act because it offers a real pathway to bring bicycle assembly back to the USA, and a 10-year timeline to accomplish reshoring. And while I will continue to oppose current and new Section 232 and 301 tariffs, I can at least acknowledge that they provide a process.
With 232 and 301, there are hearings, specific trade issues are addressed, and implementation dates are set. That process allows for planning. It allows business owners to look at their annual inventory turns and other business issues in order to make informed decisions. The current "emergency" whiplash does the opposite.
The Path Forward
The solution is clear. The money paid for the – so-called — “emergency" IEEPA tariffs must go back to the source. It belongs to the businesses that made the payment.
The industry needs to support bills that achieve this objective and reject ideas that the government would refund or use this money in any other way. There are ideas being discussed that would send checks directly to consumers. For example, Gov. JB Pritzker of Illinois has invoiced the Trump administration for payments to the citizens of Illinois. While these headline-grabbing ideas are appealing to consumers who would like to receive a “refund check,” they are bad policy ideas and likely unconstitutional and will create delays in getting the money back in the hands of those who paid it. That consumers are left out — just further confirmation of this administration’s indifference.
Stability isn't just a "nice-to-have" in the bike business; it’s the only way we survive. It’s time to stop the whiplash, respect the process, and return the capital to the people who keep the American economy moving.
*Full Disclosure – Madeleine Dean is my wife.
Sources:
- House Appropriations Committee Testimony: Rep. Madeleine Dean grills Sec. Howard Lutnick on Banana Tariffs (June 2025).
- U.S. Census Bureau: "Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales" (2025).
